The Delta variant has become the dominant Covid-19 variant in the U.K.
AFP via Getty ImagesThe U.K. recorded 11,000 daily Covid-19 cases for the first time since February, even as it reached the milestone of vaccinating more than 80% of adults.
The two seemingly contradictory data points were both recorded on Thursday, just days after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delayed England’s June 21 lockdown easing for four weeks due to concerns over the Delta variant, first identified in India. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reclassified the variant as one “of concern” earlier this week.
The U.K. government hopes the delay can be used to ensure all adults are vaccinated by July 19, opening jabs up to 18-year-olds on Friday. More than 42 million people have received at least one dose, 80.1% of the adult population, as of Thursday, while 30.6 million (58.2%) have been fully vaccinated.
The U.K.’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said cases would keep rising for the next few weeks leading to further hospitalizations and deaths, in a speech on Thursday. He added it was uncertain how big the current spike would be but also warned of another Covid surge in the winter. Whitty also said it may take five years before vaccines could “hold the line” against a range of variants.
So what’s behind the rise in cases?
A government-commissioned study published on Thursday found that younger people, less likely to be vaccinated, were behind the rise. The Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI study found that the highest prevalence of COVID between April 15 and May 3 was in the 5-12 and 18-24 age groups. The study of 109,000 tests suggested cases were doubling every 11 days over the period.
New data on the Delta variant, published by Public Health England (PHE) on Friday, may further explain why cases are rising.
Delta variant cases rose by 33,630 in the week to June 8, to a total of 75,953, a 79% increase on the previous week, the PHE data revealed.
It also showed that 99% of cases in the U.K., sequenced and genotyped to identify variants, were the Delta variant.
As of June 14, a total of 806 people have been hospitalized with the variant, an increase of 423 on the previous week. PHE said 527 of those were unvaccinated, with only 84 of the 806 having been fully vaccinated.
Read: The Delta Virus Variant Has the World on Edge. What to Know.
The weekly variant data lags behind daily cases data as scientists have to process and analyze positive test samples to identify the various variants. Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the U.K.’s Health Security Agency, said the latest variant data showed cases were rising rapidly and that the Delta variant was “now dominant.”
However, she said there was encouraging news around hospitalizations and deaths, adding that the vaccination program was saving lives.
“The increase [in cases] is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated but are now being invited to receive the vaccine. It is encouraging to see that hospitalizations are not rising at the same rate but we will continue to monitor it closely.”
What about the vaccines?
Two separate studies conducted by PHE officials found earlier this week that both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines offer significant protection against the Delta variant. Researchers found a double dose of Pfizer’s shot reduces the risk of hospitalization after infection with Delta by 96%, while the two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine cuts the risk by 92%
PHE pointed out that only 84 of the 806 people hospitalized with the Delta variant — just over 10% — had been fully vaccinated.
For the time being at least, when it comes to how serious this current surge will be, it looks like a race between the spread of the Delta variant and the U.K.’s vaccination rollout.
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June 18, 2021 at 07:43PM
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