The entire San Francisco Bay Area is experiencing a large surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time since the summer, when the region saw more hospitalizations than it did when the initial wave hit in the spring.
When comparing case, hospitalization and rate of increase figures between the winter and summer, it's clear that this current wave is worse than the summer one, making the situation for local hospitals the most dire it has been since the start of the pandemic. Using raw case counts is a bit misleading because every Bay Area county is conducting more tests now than over the summer, and the summer case figures were impacted by a data glitch at the end of July and start of August.
However, the rate of increase for case counts is still a useful metric, and the charts below show that, in most Bay Area counties, cases are increasing at a faster rate (the slope is steeper) than the summer.
Graphs of daily COVID-19 cases in San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Each individual light blue bar represents a daily total, and the blue line represents a rolling 14-day average of daily cases. The large spikes at the start of August were the result of a data glitch at the state level.
California Department of Public Health
Graphs of daily COVID-19 cases in Alameda and Santa Clara counties. Each bar represents a daily total, and the blue line represents a rolling 14-day average of daily cases. The large spikes at the start of August were the result of a data glitch at the state level.
California Department of Public HealthThese sharp case increases are fueling worries that this winter wave could possibly overwhelm the region's hospital system. Below are hospitalization statistics pulled from the California Department of Public Health website that illustrate what hospitals might be facing in the weeks and months ahead. For availability, the state only reports the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds available, as opposed to total hospital beds.
Many counties are rapidly approaching their summer peaks, and two Bay Area counties — Santa Clara and Solano — have already exceeded their highest summer totals to set new records. That is certainly not good news considering cases are still rising, and hospitalizations lag behind infections by a week or two. The number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization is only expected to increase throughout the course of the month, with every county likely to record their highest hospitalization numbers of the pandemic.
In addition, some counties have fewer available ICU beds now than they did at the summer peak, which is something that can be attributed to typical flu season hospitalizations now being added to an existing mix of patients hospitalized by COVID, heart attacks, strokes, accidents or other causes. California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly previously warned about the challenges of flu and COVID hospitalizations at the same time.
Here's a look at how the current hospitalization surge compares the summer surge:
Alameda
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 283 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 234 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 34.1% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 33.0% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 90 beds
Available ICU beds now: 75 beds (there are currently 60 COVID patients in ICU beds)
Contra Costa
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 153 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 133 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 27.5% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 38.0% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 39 beds
Available ICU beds now: 41 beds (there are currently 34 COVID patients in ICU beds)
Marin
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 44 patients (July 7)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 17 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 51.7% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 70.0% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 16 beds
Available ICU beds now: 12 beds (there are currently four COVID patients in ICU beds)
Napa
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 17 patients (July 25)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 11 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 41.7% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 22.2% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 2 beds
Available ICU beds now: 22 beds (there are currently seven COVID patients in ICU beds)
San Francisco
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 132 patients (August 18)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 91 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 17.7% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 44.4% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 51 beds
Available ICU beds now: 63 beds (there are currently 27 COVID patients in ICU beds)
San Mateo
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 86 patients (July 27)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 78 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 4.9% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 52.9% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 24 beds
Available ICU beds now: 40 beds (there are currently 18 COVID patients in ICU beds)
Santa Clara
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 241 patients (July 29)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 312 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 11.1% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 31.6% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 103 beds
Available ICU beds now: 43 beds (there are currently 89 COVID patients in ICU beds)
Solano
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 77 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 81 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the summer peak: 37.5% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 8.6% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 14 beds
Available ICU beds now: 12 beds (there are currently 24 COVID patients in ICU beds)
Sonoma
Peak number of COVID hospitalizations in the summer surge: 79 patients (June 8)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 43 patients
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations at the peak: 17.9% increase
Week-over-week percent increase in hospitalizations now: 19.4% increase
Available ICU beds at the peak: 47 beds
Available ICU beds now: 4 beds (there are currently seven COVID patients in ICU beds)
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December 03, 2020 at 07:03PM
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How much worse is the Bay Area's current COVID-19 surge than the summer surge? - SF Gate
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