The Oregon Health Authority announced 360 new suspected or confirmed cases and eight new deaths linked to COVID-19 on Saturday as new modeling suggests that, even under an optimistic scenario, the spread of the illness is likely to rise in coming months.
The state’s modeling has frequently proven not to match the actual outcome, but it does offer some insight into the apparent trajectory of the pandemic.
The modeling, which tracked three scenarios for planning purposes, suggests that coronavirus' spread may get worse if more Oregonians don’t take steps to reduce transmission.
The optimistic scenario projects 800 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 270 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 148,000.
The middle scenario projects 1,180 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 390 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 158,000.
The pessimistic scenario projects 1,700 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 570 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 172,000.
“I don’t think that’s where we’re going,” Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and state epidemiologist, said of the pessimistic forecast.
Where the new cases are by county: Baker (1), Benton (7), Clackamas (20), Clatsop (1), Columbia (7), Coos (6), Deschutes (18), Douglas (2), Hood River (1), Jackson (17), Jefferson (3), Josephine (3), Klamath (5), Lane (81), Lincoln (2), Linn (9), Malheur (5), Marion (39), Morrow (3), Multnomah (58), Polk (6), Tillamook (1), Umatilla (21), Union (1), Wasco (2), Washington (36) and Yamhill (5).
New fatalities: Oregon’s 564th death linked to coronavirus is a 79-year-old Umatilla County man with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Sept. 30 and died the same day at Kadlec Regional Medical Center in Richland, Washington.
Oregon’s 565th death linked to coronavirus is a 78-year-old Multnomah County woman with underlying health conditions. She tested positive on May 26 and died Aug. 28 at her residence.
Oregon’s 566th death linked to coronavirus is a 92-year-old Multnomah County woman with underlying health conditions. She tested positive Sept. 8 and died Sept. 11 at her residence.
Oregon’s 567th death linked to coronavirus is a 89-year-old Marion County man with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Sept. 16 and died Oct. 1 at his residence.
Oregon’s 568th death linked to coronavirus is a 89-year-old Lane County man with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Sept. 23 and died Sept. 27. Officials were working to confirm where he died.
Oregon’s 569th death linked to coronavirus is a 64-year-old Multnomah County woman with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Sept. 2 and died Sept. 18 at her residence.
Oregon’s 570th death linked to coronavirus is a 92-year-old Multnomah County woman with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Aug. 24 and died Sept. 11 at her residence.
Oregon’s 571st death linked to coronavirus is a 91-year-old Washington County man with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Aug. 10 and died Sept. 5 at her residence.
Additionally, an inmate at the Snake River Correctional Institution in eastern Oregon between the ages of 75 and 85 died Saturday morning and tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Department of Corrections. His death was not yet reflected in the state’s official death count.
-- Kale Williams; kwilliams@oregonian.com; 503-294-4048; @sfkale
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October 04, 2020 at 03:17AM
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Coronavirus in Oregon: State reports 360 new cases, 8 new deaths Saturday - OregonLive
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